Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
