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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still