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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.